Introduction to Directional Probability

Q: What is directional probability?

A: The best edge that we have found is discretionary pattern recognition. This simply means that we use our pattern recognition skills to determine the highest probability of the future direction of the stock's price.

The projected price direction is the single most important piece of information you could possibly know.

We want to know the highest probability of the stock or ETF's price direction (up, down, or sideways) based on patterns that have been proven to repeat themselves since the beginning of recorded market data.

There are a number of ways people go about determining this. Based upon our decade+ of testing, most of the techniques taught in most of the books simply don't work.

We have found one thing that works. Its based on human emotions, because human emotions have never changed throughout history. This technique is constant from year to year (rather than working for a while before quitting).

What best represents emotions on stock charts is Simplified Elliott Wave™ theory. The key word here is "Simplified."

We know that many traders have been introduced to Elliott Wave theory only to reject it because it's too complicated and they can't figure out how to make any money using it.

We agree....

The traditional way to teach Elliott Wave theory is arduous, intellectually challenging, and time-consuming. Traditional Elliot Wave theory relies on precise wave counting. We have found that this can be very accurate after the fact. However, we don't trade after the fact. We trade in real time.

On the other hand, Elliott Wave theory is the still the best way to predict future stock direction.

What we've done over the last 14 years is exhaustive testing with the intent of throwing out everything in Elliott that doesn't help us make money. In other words, to simplify Elliott Wave theory.

In summary, our trading approach uses pattern recognition - the foundation of Elliott Wave theory - in the most simple and effective way possible. We coined the terms Simplified Elliott Wave™ and Elliott Wave Simplified™.

Keep in mind that traditional Ellioticians believe that the more you know about Elliott Wave theory, the better you can trade. Our experience reveals that the opposite is true.

Over the last 14 years, we have found Simplified Elliott Wave™ to work consistently in an extremely broad variety of market personalities. It works on broad-market indexes and ETFs, and individual stocks. It's accurate in multiple time frames from monthly charts to one minute charts.

Elliot Wave Basics

Q: Can you give me a little more background info on Elliott Wave?

A: When most people look at charts they see random price movement.

Simplified Elliott Wave™ will give you the tools to recognize reliable chart patterns.

Simplified Elliott Wave™ is based on the theories of Ralph Nelson Elliott who discovered that stocks do not behave chaotically, but rather cycle repetitively.

These repetitive cycles reflect the emotions and actions of the trading public in a phenomenon called mass psychology (also known as crowd psychology, mob psychology, group psychology, or herd psychology).

In stock chart form, these cycles look like waves. These waves occur in repetitive, reliable patterns.

What's more, R.N. Elliott discovered that these cycles occur in every time frame. In other words, there are waves within waves.

It makes sense to become educated in recognizing Simplified Elliott Wave™ chart patterns because the skills are effective in any kind of market conditions, in any time frame.

When you are able to recognize patterns based on emotions, you will have a tool that measures something constant throughout human history. You will be able to read emotional content in picture form.

Q & A

Q: I've seen software for sale that will give me buy and sell signals. That seems a lot easier than learning how to see patterns. Why would anyone want to learn pattern recognition when you can just buy software for $5000 or less that will give you buy and sell signals?
A: As you've noticed, there is no shortage of mechanical systems (software) available that will give you buy and sell signals. Their claims are certainly enticing. However the profits they generate are almost always for the seller of the software, not for you. They appeal to the subconscious desire of traders to take a short cut to profitability. Our approach uses a much more powerful computer than the one on your desk. Our students tell us that after learning our Simplified Elliott Wave™ pattern recognition techniques, they wonder why anyone would ever consider a mechanical software system. In summary, your brain and your learned pattern recognition skills are far superior to computer software (mechanical systems).

Q: What is picture style support?
A: If you have a question about our techniques that's not in the manuals or two books of annotated screen shots, just write your question on the chart on your computer and then save the picture as a file and send it to us. There's lots of software that will enable you to do just that. And some charting software has those features built in. Then when we receive the chart picture with your question written on it, it's crystal clear what you're asking and you'll get your answer back quickly. We have a reputation for fast email support as we've been doing it for over 14 years on our Day Trading Course. Quite frequently you'll get an answer within minutes.

Q: If I want an hour of telephone support or even a day of in-person support, like you have for your Day Trading Course, can I get it for this course?
A: Yes, you sure can. Just purchase any type of support you want at www.eTradingCourse.com/support and call us at 770-382-9656 or email us to schedule the date and time.

Q: How does compounding work? I've heard that small gains over time can result in huge profits long term. Is this true?
A: It sure is. Here's some info on The Power of Compounding.

Q: I'll probably be taking this in the future. In the mean time can you send me updates on the course and some trading tips via an occasional email?
A: Yes, click here to receive an occasional email about the course and an occasional trading tip.

Q: What charting software should I have?
A: If you're not one of our daytrading course students, we recommend TC2007 Gold at only $29.99 per month for the delayed data version, with substantial discounts for annual prepay. We use TC2007 Gold every day.

Most of our DayTradingCourse.com students already have the eSignal/Neoticker combination and purchased it from us and can use it for eTradingCourse.com. eSignal/Neoticker is a high end solution, with the data provided by eSignal and charted on Neoticker software.

Email us or call us at 770-382-9656 during market hours if you have any questions about data feeds and charting.

Q: What training materials will I receive?
A: On day one of your training, you'll receive 3 printed and bound manuals.  One Training Manual and two Annotated Pictures Manuals.   If you're training via Online, we'll ship your training materials to you prior to your course date via Federal Express Ground, US Mail, or UPS Ground.  There's no shipping charge if you're in the U.S.  Please call us at 770-382-9656 during market hours to inquire about shipping charges outside the U.S.

The first manual is the Techniques Manual. It's 349 pages.
eTradingCourse Training Manual

The second manual is the Annotated Chart Pictures manual, 1 of 2. It's 284 pages.
eTradingCourse Annotated Chart Pictures Manual 1 of 2

And the third manual is the second Annotated Chart Pictures manual, 2 of 2. It's 281 pages.
eTradingCourse Annotated Chart Pictures Manual 2 of 2

Please contact us with any questions you may have.